The Wolverine

October 2019

The Wolverine: Covering University of Michigan Football and Sports

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OCTOBER 2019 THE WOLVERINE 65 O n Sept. 7, unbeaten Michigan, a 22-point favorite, was on the ropes. Thanks to Michigan's multiple miscues, Army seemed on the verge of de- livering a knockout punch to the Wolverines and preparing to celebrate an enormous up- set victory at The Big House. No, it wasn't when U-M faced a seven-point deficit in overtime. No, it wasn't when Army placekicker Cole Talley pushed wide right a 50-yard field goal attempt at the end of regulation. No, it wasn't when Army quarterback Kel- vin Hopkins Jr. threw an in- terception to Michigan senior cornerback Lavert Hill on the U-M 5-yard line with a 14-7 lead in the third quarter. It was actually two plays before that interception because, without it, Hill never would have been in a po- sition to catch that pivotal pick. After a Michigan three-and-out to open the second half, Army marched 61 yards in six plays to set up a first-and-goal on the U-M 4-yard line. On first down, Hopkins kept the ball on an option and bur- ied his way down to the 1-yard line. It was second down, and the Black Knights were just three feet away from scoring their third touchdown and taking a 14-point lead. Against most teams, a 14-point def- icit in the third quarter is surmount- able. But Army is not most teams. The Black Knights run the triple- option offense, and their philosophy prioritizes ball control and limiting possessions for their opponents. In 2018, they were first in the nation in run rate on both standard downs (93.7 percent) and passing downs (74.0 percent), and they were 22nd in offensive efficiency, but dead last in offensive explosiveness. Essentially, Army just runs and runs and keeps on running, picking up three yards here, six yards there and five yards thereafter. As a result, Army tends to string together long, grinding drives that consume large chunks of time off of the clock. Thus, as Army prepared to punch in its next touchdown to lead by 14, Michigan was likely going to have only three, maybe four, possessions left in regulation even though it was only midway through the third quarter. In fact, U-M would get the ball only three more times before overtime. If Army had found paydirt, the Wolverines, who had only seven points to that moment and were plagued with fumble-itis the entire first half, would have had to score two touchdowns in its next three possessions and prevent Army from scoring again just to have a chance to win in overtime. And Army was about to score that touchdown. With a second-and-goal on the 1-yard line, the Black Knights were going to have three chances to gain a single yard. If they would not have gotten it on their first two tries, there would have been little doubt that they would have gone for it on their third. In 2018, Army was tied for fourth nationally in fourth-down tries with 36. Going for it on fourth down is a key tenet of their game plan. But Army probably would not have needed three tries. The Black Knights likely would have only re- quired one. Last season, they were first in the nation in stuff rate (11.1 percent), which is the percentage of times that their offense was stopped for no gain or a loss. This means that Army's triple-option of- fense gained at least one yard on 88.9 percent of its plays. Though it is more difficult to gain a yard on the goal line than at the 50, Army rarely is stuck in neutral or reverse. The odds that the Black Knights would not gain a yard on three straight plays is 0.14 percent —less than a single percentage point. It cannot be emphasized enough: U-M was in serious trouble. More trouble than the risk of a true freshman who has never kicked a field goal trying to split the uprights from 50 yards away. But then the Wolverines baited Army into the most important miscue of the day: a false start. The Wolverines came out in a three-man front and planned to shift the defense at the last second to try to stop the fullback dive. According to Michigan defensive coordinator Don Brown, the call for that shift is "Move!" and when U-M's defense yelled the call, it startled Army's fullback. Suddenly, Army was on the 6-yard line, where it was no longer a guarantee that the Black Knights would barrel into the end zone for a touchdown. Then on third-and- five, they were far enough away that they thought they could catch Michigan off guard with a pass. Ex- cept Hill was waiting for it. Though the Black Knights would have more chances to earn the up- set, none were as good as when they were on the doorstep in the third quarter. That false start changed the entire game. And it's why, heading to Wiscon- sin, Michigan was still unbeaten. ❑ INSIDE THE NUMBERS   DREW HALLETT The False Start That Kept U-M Unbeaten Senior cornerback Lavert Hill's interception at the goal line against Army changed the entire game — but the Black Knights' false start two plays prior helped lead to that golden opportunity for the Wolverines. PHOTO BY LON HORWEDEL Staff writer Drew Hallett has covered Michigan athletics since 2013. Contact him at drew.c.hallett@gmail.com and follow him on Twitter @DrewCHallett.

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