2014 Notre Dame Football Preview

2 ✦ BLUE & GOLD ILLUSTRATED 2014 FOOTBALL PREVIEW W hen a Notre Dame head football coach enters his fifth year on the job, there generally have been two storylines. Either he has already established himself as a present or future icon by having won a national title or posted an unbeaten season (if not both), or he is on the proverbial hot seat, primed to be jettisoned while under intense scrutiny. Current Notre Dame boss Brian Kelly is in a unique circumstance because he doesn't fall into either category. With a 37-15 record (.712 winning per- centage), he isn't yet a national title coach like Knute Rockne, Frank Leahy, Ara Par- seghian, Dan Devine and Lou Holtz were, yet he certainly isn't on a hot seat regarding his job security. Over the past 30 years, Gerry Faust (1985), Bob Davie (2001) and Charlie Weis (2009) all had "countdown fifth years" in which they had dug too deep a hole over the first four seasons to have enough success in the fifth to justify a sixth. Tyrone Willing- ham (2002-04) lasted only three years. Of the 14 previous full-time head coaches for the Fighting Irish, starting with Jesse Harper in 1913, only six made it beyond a fifth season. Among those six, only Elmer Layden (1934-40), one of the legendary Four Horsemen from Notre Dame's first national title team in 1924, did so without winning the championship. Layden had a successful seven-year stint in which his winning percentage was a laudable .770, slightly better than Holtz (.765 from 1986-96) and Devine (.764 from 1975-80). In his fifth season at Notre Dame, Layden was one win from a national title before his unbeaten and No. 1-ranked team lost 13-0 to USC in the regular-season finale. Two years later, Layden departed to be- come NFL commissioner and not have to deal with Rockne's overwhelming ghost. Sometimes we wonder if Kelly is on a similar course. Like Layden, Kelly has built enough of a positive culture where consistently good seasons shouldn't put his job in jeopardy. Like Layden, the proclivity for close games, win or lose, has been amazing. Layden's 1937 team outscored opponents only 77-49 the entire year while finishing ninth in the final Associated Press poll, and from 1937-39 his teams won a school-record 12 straight games decided by seven or fewer points. Kelly's 2012-13 teams are tied for second with 10 consecutive such wins before the 28-21 loss last year at Pitt. Like Layden in 1938, Kelly came one game short of winning it all in 2012 before falling in the finale. Like Layden, Kelly might possibly view the NFL as an exit strategy after his clan- destine information-related talk with the Philadelphia Eagles the day after the BCS National Championship Game loss. What precipitated Layden's move to the NFL was his contract expired three months after the 7-2 season in 1940. Notre Dame president Father Hugh O'Donnell reportedly would offer him only a one-year renewal. Reading the handwriting on the wall that Notre Dame had become bored with solid 7-2 and top-10 to top-20 seasons, Layden resigned on Feb. 4, 1941, to join the NFL. In four seasons as Notre Dame's head coach, Kelly has averaged a solid 9.25 wins per season. It comprised his "four-year un- dergraduate" program at Notre Dame. Entering year five, he is now in his gradu- ate, master's program where 9.25 wins per year would elicit ennui among the masses. It is Earle Bruce territory. Bruce was the Layden of Ohio State foot- ball from 1979-87. He opened his career with an 11-0 record before barely losing the national title in the Rose Bowl, a 17-16 defeat to USC. In his next six years from 1980-85, Bruce finished 9-3 and in the top 15 each time, plus 10-3 in 1986, leading to a derisive "Ol' 9-3 Earle" moniker from Buckeye Nation before getting ousted for a 6-4-1 ledger in 1987. The next three or four years will ulti- mately define the Kelly legacy by what tra- jectory occurs, with a national title the lone "pass-fail" measuring stick used at the end. The projections this year for Notre Dame are the usual: solid, 9-3, top-15 to top-20 team, but a notch below the top programs in the South, where the balance of the nation's power now mostly resides. In football coaching graduate work, the demands heighten. The 9.25 wins average probably needs to get to at least 10.25. Ten wins per season have to become "the floor" in the operation. Stanford has averaged 11.5 wins over the past four years ... so why not Notre Dame? Making the College Football Playoff at least once in the next four years won't make 2012 look like an outlier or aberration year. Winning games Notre Dame "is not supposed to win" — i.e. at Florida State — needs to become more commonplace to achieve credibility as an elite program. Win- ning a major bowl for the first time in 21 years would provide inspiration and relief. Much progress has been achieved within Notre Dame's football infrastructure the past four years. The master's program now with Kelly should and needs to be in place to raise the level in years to come, and not just remain at the "solid" status quo. ✦ FOUR-YEAR GRAD BRIAN KELLY NOW IN MASTER'S PROGRAM THE FIFTH QUARTER LOU SOMOGYI Senior Editor Lou Somogyi has been at Blue & Gold Illustrated since July 1985. He can be reached at lsomogyi@blueandgold.com The coming years of the Brian Kelly "graduate program" will define his impact. PHOTO COURTESY NOTRE DAME MEDIA RELATIONS 2.5th Quarter.indd 2 6/10/14 4:03 PM

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