Fleet Management News & Business Info | Commercial Carrier Journal
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6 COMMERCIAL CARRIER JOURNAL | FEBRUARY 2015 A mericans consumed an estimated 1.25 billion chicken wing segments on Super Bowl Sunday. By my math at four segments per chicken, that's 312.5 million of our tasty feathered friends, many of which were hauled from farms to processing plants in preparation for the big game. But poultry haulers aren't the only segment of our indus- try that has cause for celebration this year. We are only one month into 2015, and already there is plenty of news being made in the trucking industry. Here is a list of facts, figures and dates to keep your eyes on as we roll through what should be a banner year for growth. ACT Research's forecast for production units of Class 8 trucks in North America this year. "If that comes to pass in 2015, that will be the second strongest North American Class 8 production number after the prebuy-fueled 2006 as truckers raced to avoid EPA 2007," says Kenny Vieth, president of ACT Research. The random drug testing rate at which the Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administra- tion will continue for truck drivers this year. According to the agency, its decision to maintain testing rates was based on the results of a 2012 drug and alcohol testing survey that showed a 4.1 percent increase in positive test rates following an initial positive test result. The U.S. Department of Energy's Energy Information Administration projects the low cost per gallon for on-highway diesel is expected to reach this mark in April before climbing back slowly to $3 per gallon by yearend. For the year, EIA anticipates the price of diesel to average $2.85, nearly a dollar less than 2014's average of $3.83. As the sharp dip in diesel prices in the latter half of 2014 continues through the first several months of this year, look for interest in natural-gas-powered trucks to wane, at least in the short term. New tax credits, lower natural gas prices or a spike in diesel prices obviously would reignite fleet senti- ment toward alternative fuels. The expected publica- tion date of FMCSA's long-awaited Final Rule requiring the use of electronic logging devices by drivers and fleets instead of paper logs. Given the agency's propensity to delay dates of rulemak- ings, I'm not holding my breath that is the actual date we see the Final Rule. But whenever it is published, carriers and owner-operators will have two years to phase in electronic logs before enforcement begins. The T880, that is – Kenworth's vocational truck with a Paccar MX-13 engine that last month was named the American Truck Dealers' 2015 Truck of the Year at the association's annual convention. This year's competition focused on vocational, heavy-haul and severe-duty truck models. Two-thirds of respondents to a recent CCJ MarketPulse survey say business conditions will be better or much better over the first six months of 2015. (Shameless plug: If you would like to participate in our monthly MarketPulse survey of trucking conditions, please email me at jcrissey@randallreilly.com.) The number of Mexican trucking companies admitted to FMCSA's three-year cross-border pilot program vs. the number the agency previously said it would need to produce enough data to draw conclusions about the safety and compliance of Mexican carriers. Despite the shortfall, FMCSA last month began accepting applications for Mexican carriers to operate in the United States beyond the commercial border zone. Of course, there are many unknowns that exist in 2015 as well. Will truck tonnage, which is coming off back-to-back months at an all-time high, be able to continue at its torrid pace? Will carriers continue to use their long-overdue leverage to raise freight rates? Only time will tell, but most indicators point to another positive year for trucking. UPFRONT Any way you slice it, it's shaping up to be an interesting year for the trucking industry BY JEFF CRISSEY 2015 by the numbers JEFF CRISSEY is Editor of Commercial Carrier Journal. E-mail jcrissey@ccjmagazine.com.