Blue & Gold Illustrated: 2012 Notre Dame Football Preview
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2 ✦ BLUE & GOLD ILLUSTRATED 2016 FOOTBALL PREVIEW F rom the time Notre Dame captured its first consensus national title in 1924 (with a 10‑0 record) through 1968, the barometers of what constituted a successful season for mostly 10‑game schedules were cut and dry: Finishing 10‑0 was good — and a No. 1 ranking at 9‑0‑1 in 1966 (featured in this edi‑ tion on its 50th anniversary) also fell under that umbrella. A 9‑1 campaign and/or top‑five ranking were okay — even good if it included a na‑ tional title like in 1943 while playing the country's toughest schedule. Finally, 8‑2 was barely passing. Then, beginning in 1968 and going roughly into the mid‑1990s, the standards began to get tweaked because of three factors. One, the Associated Press made bowl games relevant in 1968 and permanently in‑ cluded their results in the national title voting. This prompted Notre Dame to lift its 45‑year ban from bowl competition in 1969. It also came with the original stipulation that Notre Dame would attend only one of the "majors" it was eligible for: Cotton, Orange and Sugar, and later the Fiesta. Consequently, success in the "big" bowls became a demarca‑ tion of excellence. In the 25 years from 1969‑93, Notre Dame won 10 majors, the most in the country. Seven of those conquests were against No. 1 and/or unbeaten foes. Capping a season with a win on Dec. 31‑Jan. 2 embodied prosperity. Second, by 1974, the regular‑season sched‑ ule expanded to 11 games, a 12th was added here and there, and 12 games became the norm by 2006. A 10‑win season didn't hold the same prominence now because it usually also included three losses. Finally, football grant‑in‑aids began to be gradually cut by the NCAA, first to 105 by 1974, 95 by 1978 and 85 in 1992. The "haves" almost always will have, but it helped "have nots" close the gap. At the start of the 1990s, following 12‑0 and 12‑1 finishes at Notre Dame in 1988‑89, a 9‑3 season was viewed as the worst‑case situation. Times have changed the last 20 years. When Brian Kelly arrived as the head coach in 2010, a 9‑3 regular season became more embraced. Even in Hall‑of‑Fame head coach Lou Holtz's final three seasons from 1994‑96, Notre Dame was a modest 23‑11‑1, which averages out to roughly a yearly 8‑4 mark. Under Bob Davie (35‑25 from 1997‑2001), Tyrone Willingham (21‑15 from 2002‑04) and Charlie Weis (35‑27 from 2005‑09), the Irish averaged exactly seven wins per season. Now in six years with Kelly (2010‑15), his 55‑23 record amounts to a 9‑4 average. That upgrade has helped result in a six‑year con‑ tract through 2021. Nevertheless … after 11 consensus national titles in the 65 years from 1924‑88, there have been none over the past 27. After 10 major bowl wins in the 25 years from 1969‑93, there hasn't been one in the last 22, and only two top‑10 finishes (No. 9 in 2005 and No. 4 in 2012). There is no question in my mind that the 2015 Fighting Irish that finished 10‑3 — with the three losses to the Nos. 2, 3 and 4 teams in the final AP poll, two of them in the closing seconds — were one of the 10 best teams in the country. Unfortunately, the record books will show a No. 11 finish in the AP rankings. Still, Kelly and his staff have now made Notre Dame into a top‑10 to top‑15 operation. The start of the College Football Playoff era in 2015 changed the complexion, too. Can Notre Dame reach the CFP at least once per five years? Two in five would put it into the top tier. For now, there are some other bench‑ marks to help define a season: Win At Least 10 Games — If Michigan State and Stanford can average 11 wins per season since 2010 (the year Kelly arrived), 10 should be consistently achievable for the Fighting Irish. It hasn't been achieved back‑ to‑back since 1991‑93 (hint, hint). Win The Games You Are "Supposed To" — Major upsets happen all the time, but they can't be annual or multiple like Tulsa and Navy in 2010, USF in 2011, at Pitt in 2013, or Northwestern and Louisville at home in 2014. The Irish avoided it last year, especially at Vir‑ ginia and Temple. Can it be done back‑to‑back years (hint, hint)? Hold Serve At Home — In the 22 years from 1990‑2011, Notre Dame finished un‑ scathed at home only once (1998). Under Kelly, this has happened in two of the last four seasons (2012 and 2015). Three times over a five‑year period would be outstanding (hint, hint). Even Alabama has a home loss in four of the past six years. Produce A Major Upset Once Per Two Or Three Years — Other than at Oklahoma in 2012, this has rarely occurred against the blue bloods of the sport ranked in the top 10 (specifically on the road), including 0‑7 in the "majors" since 1994. The College Football Playoff is more like the major now (hint, hint). Standards have been altered or tweaked over the decades, but the hope for prosperity remains the same. ✦ DEFINING SUCCESS HAS BECOME MORE COMPLEX THE FIFTH QUARTER LOU SOMOGYI Senior Editor Lou Somogyi has been at Blue & Gold Illustrated since July 1985. He can be reached at lsomogyi@blueandgold.com Taking down an opponent the caliber of Ohio State is among the benchmarks senior linebacker James Onwualu and the Irish should aim to achieve in 2016. PHOTO BY BILL PANZICA