Blue & Gold Illustrated: 2012 Notre Dame Football Preview
Issue link: http://read.uberflip.com/i/841614
8 ✦ BLUE & GOLD ILLUSTRATED 2017 FOOTBALL PREVIEW UNDER THE DOME During head coach Brian Kelly's second season at Notre Dame, the 8‑5 Fighting Irish committed an inordinate amount of turnovers with 29, including five apiece in losses to South Florida and Michigan to open the season. What was overlooked t h a t s e a s o n , t h o u g h , was the Fighting Irish a l s o f o r c e d o n l y 1 4 turnovers. That number marked the fewest in the post‑World War II era by a Notre Dame team, three less than the previ‑ ous standard. Other than the 12‑1 campaign in 2012, that type of data has been an unfortunate consistent trend with the defense, which in each of the past four seasons has been on the negative side of the turnovers battle. In 2012, Irish defensive coordinator Bob Diaco earned the Frank Broyles Assistant Coach of The Year Award by not only finishing No. 1 during the 12‑0 regular season in scoring defense but by forcing 23 turnovers, or almost two per contest. More importantly, many came at critical junctures in numerous tight wins. The Irish also committed only 14 to have a plus‑nine advantage overall in turnovers. Since then, though, Notre Dame has failed to finish on the plus side of turnovers each of the past four seasons. • In Diaco's final season (2013) prior to becoming head coach at UConn, the Irish forced only 13 turnovers — even lower than the 2011 standard — during an 8‑4 regular season. The number was bolstered in a 29‑16 Pinstripe Bowl win over a 6‑7 Rutgers team when the Scarlet Knights had four turnovers. Enter Brian VanGorder as the new coor‑ dinator at Notre Dame. • The word was that with VanGorder's complex and multi‑pronged NFL scheme, the Irish might give up more big plays than with Diaco's more conservative approach, but that the defense also would generate more turnovers and negative plays by the offense. Indeed, in 2014 Notre Dame did force 23 turnovers — tying the 2012 team — but the Fighting Irish having 26 turnovers of its own nullified it somewhat during another 8‑5 campaign. • In 2015, despite the presence of Butkus Award winner Jaylon Smith, the Irish again were able to produce only 14 turnovers, ty‑ ing the school‑record low. • During a 1‑3 start in 2016, the defense reached a new nadir before VanGorder was ousted. A more simplified scheme under Mike Elston and Greg Hudson helped a little during the 4‑8 implosion, but Notre Dame produced merely 15 turnovers, tied for 104th nationally. The Irish offense c o m m i t t e d o n l y 1 8 turnovers itself, but the defense almost never could make the game‑ changing plays on its side of the ball to stem momentum. Is forcing turnovers a vital stat toward win‑ ning? Consider that all four College Football Playoff teams last year finished in the top 10 nationally in that cat‑ egory, with Washington No. 1 (33), Alabama No. 5 (29), and national champ Clemson and Ohio State tied for 10th (27 apiece). Enter Mike Elko, the defensive coordinator at Wake Forest from 2014‑16. H i s 2 0 1 6 D e m o n Deacons ranked in the top 20 in several ma‑ jor defensive catego‑ ries, including No. 3 in fumbles recovered (15), No. 10 in turnovers forced (27) and No. 12 in sacks (41, 3.15 per game). Wake Forest was one of four schools in the Football Bowl Subdivi‑ sion to finish in the top 20 in turnovers forced, sacks and scoring de‑ fense in 2016. The other three schools — Alabama, Clemson and Washington — qualified for the College Football Playoff. Even during Elko's five seasons at Bowl‑ ing Green (2009‑13), the Falcons forced 106 turnovers, (1.7 per game), or about 21 per year. Generating about two turnovers per contest, or approximately 24 per season, would be realistic — although the when they occur is more important than the vol‑ ume itself. However, continuing to stay in the 13‑16 range of forcing turnovers, and not ending up on the plus side in that category for a fifth straight season in 2017, would not bode well. It probably could spell the dif‑ ference between another several wins or defeats at Notre Dame. Last year, first-year Irish coordinator Mike Elko's Wake Forest defensive unit forced 27 turn- overs compared to the 15 generated by the Irish. PHOTO BY BRIAN WESTERHOLT, SPORTS ON FILM TALE OF THE TURNOVERS