Blue and Gold Illustrated

BGI March 2019

Blue & Gold Illustrated: America's Foremost Authority on Notre Dame Football

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82 MARCH 2019 BLUE & GOLD ILLUSTRATED BY LOU SOMOGYI I n each edition during the foot- ball season, one of Blue & Gold Illustrated's previews on the up- coming weekly Notre Dame op- ponent centers on three primary sto- rylines for the game. Likewise, we have also picked three topics that are most likely to de- fine the 2019 season and how much the Fighting Irish can build on the 12-1 outcome this past campaign that enabled them to make the four-team College Football Playoff (CFP). It begins with manufacturing more points to keep up with the top pro- grams in college football, followed by holding the middle ground, es- pecially on defense, and navigating a challenging five-game road slate. A 'SCORE' TO SETTLE When one reviews head coach Brian Kelly's nine seasons at Notre Dame, the scoring production from the offense has been relatively con- sistent. That has had its pros and cons. The pro is that the typical averages in that time have given the Fighting Irish an opportunity to win eight to 12 games yearly, most of the time. The con is when you go up against the crème-de-la-crème in high-stakes matchups, you better be able to have prolific scoring offenses, because 14- 10, 17-14 and even 24-21 type of re- sults likely won't get the job done. Witness Notre Dame's six major bowl, BCS Championship and CFP outings since 2000. The Irish lost by scores of 41-9, 34-20, 41-14, 42-14, 44- 28 and, most recently, 30-3. Notre Dame's scoring average was 14.7 points per game, while the op- position's was 38.7. Bottom line: Notre Dame has evolved under Kelly into an im- proved tier two product — top-10 caliber — but it has been unable to keep up with the proliferation of scoring that has become Arena foot- ball-like among tier one operations. Just look at the four CFP teams this year and their final ranking in scor- ing offense: • Oklahoma was No. 1 with a 48.4 scoring average. • Alabama was No. 2 at 45.6. • The national champion Clem- son Tigers were No. 4 at 44.3 — and tallied 44 in the title game rout of Alabama. • Notre Dame, meanwhile, was a far more modest 31.4 to rank No. 41. Meanwhile, near-CFP qualifier Ohio State was No. 8 at 42.4, and Georgia was at 39.2 prior to its Sugar Bowl defeat to Texas. About a decade ago, 30 points was a pretty good standard to shoot for in scoring offense. Today "40 is the new 30" among tier one programs. In Kelly's first four seasons (2010- 13), Notre Dame couldn't get to the 30 level, averaging 26.3 (2010), 29.2 (2011), 25.8 (2012) and 27.2 (2013). Then the past five years from 2014- 18, it has improved to a consistent 30-34 level: 32.8 (2014), 34.2 (2015 and 2017), 30.9 (2016) and the aforemen- tioned 31.4 (2018). Can the Irish someday reach the 40-point mark like the other pow- ers? Would you believe the school record remains 37.6 — set 50 years ago by Ara Parseghian's 1968 outfit? One shouldn't have to go back to the 1960s for this standard. Will this change in 2019? On paper, it would seem relatively status quo. Notre Dame should and generally always excels at signing top offensive linemen and tight ends, and most of the time quarterbacks, although only DeShone Kizer has been drafted dur- ing the Kelly era. • Going back to the CFP teams again this past year, Clemson's Trevor Lawrence and Alabama's Tua Tagovailoa are easily projected as future first-round picks, and likely No. 1 overall choices. So is Oklahoma Heisman Trophy winner Kyler Mur- ray, while Georgia's Jake Fromm and Ohio State's Dwayne Haskins have promising NFL forecasts. Notre Dame's Ian Book had a qual- ity junior campaign, finishing 17th among 113 qualifiers with a 154.0 rating — the highest in Kelly's nine seasons at Notre Dame. However, like the Notre Dame overall offense, the arm strength and future doesn't quite translate into first-round cali- ber, if drafted at all. Interestingly, not once in Kelly's nine seasons has a quarterback started two full seasons back to back, although Kizer did start the final 11 games of 2015 and all 12 in 2016. • At running back, Kelly, offensive coordinator Chip Long and former running backs coach Autry Denson (now the head coach at Charleston Southern) have done exceptional work the past five season in molding C.J. Prosise, Josh Adams and Dex- ter Williams into productive, lethal, game-breaking backs. And while the Irish haven't signed in recent cycles a "wow factor" figure in the backfield, junior-to-be Jafar Armstrong — recruited as a receiver — could be next in line to join the Prosise-Adams-Williams group after rushing for 383 yards, 5.3 yards per carry and seven scores as a sopho- more. He and senior Tony Jones Jr. (392 yards, 4.7 yards per carry, three scores) will need to get beyond the proverbial "solid" status if the of- fense is to become more potent and challenge the Alabamas and Clem- sons of the football world. • Clutch wideout Miles Boykin opted to bypass his fifth season of eligibility to give the NFL a shot, but Chase Claypool and Chris Finke re- turn after combining for 99 recep- tions, 1,210 receiving yards and six scores in 2018. The question remains: Does Notre Dame have game breakers and field stretchers the way the tier one teams do? Possibly in the current freshman class, but how long will their devel- opment take? One year, two or three? It took four years under Kelly to go TOP 2019 STORYLINES Scoring punch, filling the middle and winning on the road are highlights Ian Book posted a 154.0 quarterback rating dur- ing his quality junior campaign, but the Fighting Irish still lagged behind the top teams nationally in scoring offense with a 31.4-point average. PHOTO BY ANGELA DRISKELL

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