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-4- • The expected slowdown in population growth over the 2021−31 decade is primarily attributed to lower fertility rates in recent decades compared with rates seen in the 1960s and early 1970s, as well as to reduced net international migration in the last two decades in comparison to that of preceding decades. • Slower projected growth in the population is expected to constrain growth in the civilian labor force over the projections period. The civilian labor force is expected to rise to 168.9 million in 2031 from 161.2 million in 2021, a 7.7 million increase. This translates to projected annual growth of 0.5 percent, the same rate as that of the 2011−21 decade but slower than rates in years prior to 2011. • The labor force participation rate is projected to fall from 61.7 percent in 2021 to 60.1 percent in 2031. An aging population, represented by a greater share of individuals over the age of 65, is the principal factor driving the decline in the labor force participation rate over the 2021−31 decade. • At the same time, the participation rates of the 55-to-64 and 65-plus age groups are projected to climb higher over the projections decade as older workers increasingly stay in the workforce. (See chart 3.) Macroeconomy • Real GDP is projected to grow 2.1 percent annually over the 2021−31 decade. This is slightly higher than the two previous decades' respective annual rates of 2.0 percent and 1.8 percent, but much lower than the 3.0 percent and above rates seen in the 1980s and 1990s. • Labor productivity growth is projected to accelerate to 2.2 percent annually—within its long-term historic range. This is up significantly from 1.3 percent annual productivity growth in the prior decade. 55.5 51.1 81.6 81.1 64.6 68.2 18.9 21.5 61.7 60.1 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029 2031 Chart 3. Labor force participation rate, by select age group, 1991─2021 and 2021─31 projected 16-24 25-54 55-64 65+ All, 16+ Percent Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics