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Lost opportunities: The protracted effect of the pandemic on youth and young adults Youth (ages 15–24) is the period when people make the transition from mainly accumulating to utilizing human capital. 21 Young people may be in school, employed (whether formally or informally and in high- or low-wage jobs), or idle. They can also engage (or not) in behaviors such as unprotected sex, drug use, criminal activity, and gang membership. The decisions made by young people have long-term consequences—and the pandemic affected them in critical ways. First, at the outset of the pandemic youth suffered deep employment losses (figure ES.3). In 10 of the 12 countries in figure ES.3, there was a decline in youth employment in the second quarter of 2020, ranging from 1 percentage point in Vietnam to 11 percentage points in the Philippines. The exceptions are the two lower-income countries in the sample, where youth employment increased—by 1 percentage point in Ethiopia (2021) and by 3 percentage points in Pakistan. Figure ES.3 also reveals substantial differences in the paern of recovery. By the end of 2021, youth employ- ment had recovered fully and exceeded pre-pandemic levels in Brazil, Mexico, and Türkiye. On the other hand, there is no evidence of a recovery in South Africa, while in Bulgaria, Jordan, and—especially—Vietnam, youth employment continued to decline throughout 2021. These job losses were compounded by declines in wages for young people in many countries. Figure ES.3 Youth employment fell in most countries during the pandemic Percentage point change in youth employment (ages 15–24) –6 –2 6 –3 –3 –5 1 –4 –1 –1 –3 –3 –4 –8 –1 1 –10 –5 0 5 10 Percentage point change Percentage point change Brazil Bulgaria Ethiopia India Jordan Mexico Morocco Pakistan Philippines South Africa Türkiye Vietnam 2020:Q2 2021:Q1 2021:Q4 2020:Q2 2021:Q1 2021:Q4 2021 2020:Q2 2021:Q1 2021:Q4 2020:Q2 2021:Q1 2021:Q4 2020:Q2 2021:Q1 2021:Q4 –3 –1 –1 3 3 –11 –3 –4 –4 –4 –7 –3 0 –1 –10 –13 –15 –15 –10 –5 0 5 10 2020:Q2 2021:Q1 2021:Q4 2020:Q2 2021:Q1 2020:Q2 2021:Q1 2020:Q2 2021:Q1 2021:Q4 2020:Q2 2021:Q1 2021:Q4 2020:Q2 2021:Q1 2021:Q4 Source: Original calculations for this publication, based on data from labor force surveys. Note: See chapter 4 for additional figure details. Q = quarter. Executive Summary 7

• Front Cover
• Contents
• Main Messages
• Executive Summary
• The pandemic destroyed human capital at critical moments in the life cycle
• Policies to reverse human capital losses
• Building agile, resilient, and adaptive human development systems for future shocks
• A human capital recovery: What will it take?
• Notes
• References
• Figures
• Figure ES.1 The pandemic led to steep losses in early childhood development and early learning in very young children in Bangladesh and Brazil
• Figure ES.2 During the pandemic, each month of school closures led to one month of learning losses, and more so in countries with lower GDP per capita
• Figure ES.3 Youth employment fell in most countries during the pandemic
• Figure ES.4 Declines in employment of young people during the pandemic were not offset by increases inschooling or training
• Figure ES.5 What are the paths to recovery?
• Table
• Table ES.1 There are evidence-proven policies that can reverse human capital losses