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Chapter 2: Structural drivers of labour shortages in the context of changing skills needs 49 care workers, labour shortages are likely to be strongly driven by the overall level of occupational employment growth. For health professionals, personal care workers, drivers and mobile plant operators, and cleaners and helpers, replacement needs will also play a key role. Among shortage occupations, labour market imbalances are estimated to have a strong impact for personal services workers, sales workers, building, metal, machinery and related trades workers, drivers and mobile plant operators, and cleaners and helpers. Future labour shortages at occupational level will be primarily driven by growth in employment and mismatches in education composition, with differences across broad occupation skill groups (Table 2.4). While future shortages in high-skilled non-manual occupations will be strongly driven by expansion and replacement needs, elementary and skilled manual occupations will be significantly affected by labour market imbalances. Across broad occupation skill groups, elementary occupations and high-skilled non-manual occupations are projected to face the strongest shortages by 2035. This includes some occupations in the high- skilled and elementary occupation groups that are not currently identified as experiencing persistent labour shortages. ( 136 ) However, given the lower skill requirements of elementary occupations, their shortages are less likely to create significant bottlenecks in availability of staff with the required educational credentials. Rather, the challenge in these occupations relates to over-education and job satisfaction, and to retaining and attracting staff under existing wage and working conditions. By contrast, shortages in higher-skilled occupations, such as legal and business professionals, may require additional efforts in education and training, given the higher educational credentials typically required in these professions. ( 137 ) Also, shortages of science and engineering professionals can benefit from supporting diversification in researchers' careers. ( 138 ) Finally, shortages of some skilled manual and non-manual occupations are expected to be high, largely due to labour market imbalances. Table 2.4 Future labour shortages are strongest in high-skilled non-manual and elementary occupations Future occupational shortages to 2035, ranging from 1 (weak or no shortage) to 4 (strong shortage) Note: Selection of occupations at ISCO 2-digit level, including those with the highest projected future shortages (indicator of 2.7 or higher) and those characterised by persistent labour shortages (in grey) (see Table 2.3); for the full list, see Table A.2; yellow to red colouring represents low to high indicator levels. Source: Calculations based on Cedefop Skills Forecast 2023. Click here to download table. ( 136 ) In Table 2.4, ISCO 2-digit: 11, 13, 26, 33, 34, 93, 94, 95, 96. ( 137 ) The role of migration in attracting talent is discussed in section 6. ( 138 ) (European Commission, Directorate-General for Research and Innovation, 2022). ISCO Occupation Expansion Replacement Imbalance Future shortage indicator 11 Chief executives, senior officials and legislators 2 4 2 2.7 13 Production and specialized services managers 3 3 2 2.7 21 Science and engineering professionals 4 2 1 2.3 22 Health professionals 3 4 1 2.7 25 ICT professionals 4 1 1 2.0 26 Legal, social and cultural professionals 3 3 2 2.7 33 Business and administration associate professionals 3 3 2 2.7 34 Legal, social, cultural and related associate professionals 4 3 2 3.0 42 Customer services clerks 3 3 2 2.7 51 Personal services workers 3 2 3 2.7 52 Sales workers 2 2 3 2.3 53 Personal care workers 3 3 2 2.7 71 Building and related trades workers (excluding electricians) 2 2 3 2.3 72 Metal, machinery and related trades workers 2 2 3 2.3 74 Electrical and electronic trades workers 2 2 2 2.0 82 Assemblers 3 2 3 2.7 83 Drivers and mobile plant operators 2 3 3 2.7 91 Cleaners and helpers 2 4 4 3.3 93 Labourers in mining, construction, manufacturing and transport 3 2 4 3.0 94 Food preparation assistants 3 2 4 3.0 95 Street and related sales and services workers 2 2 4 2.7 96 Refuse workers and other elementary workers 3 2 4 3.0 High-skilled non- manual occupations Skilled non- manual occupations Skilled manual occupations Elementary occupations