Issue link: https://read.uberflip.com/i/1504722
Chapter 2: Structural drivers of labour shortages in the context of changing skills needs 51 The majority of EU citizens believe that policies to tackle climate change will create more jobs than they will remove and that those will be better quality jobs, at 57% and 61%, respectively. ( 151 ) More than half (55%) of the respondents to the Special Eurobarometer in 2022 reported that being in a job that contributes to the green transition is important to them personally, with 15% stating that they 'totally agree'. However, only around one-third believe that their current job contributes to that transition. Those proportions vary considerably across Member States, potentially reflecting regional differences in general public awareness of the green transition's impact and relevance to their lives. ( 151 ) Special Eurobarometer on fairness perceptions of the green transition (European Commission, 2022i). Box 2.2: Approaches to define green jobs Scenarios to estimate impacts of the net-zero economy transition show a complex picture of multiple demand and supply channels, influencing employment patterns in different ways and at different intensities. Analysis of the actual employment trends, including labour and skills shortages in key sectors, is not clear-cut, as an established definition of 'green jobs' is not yet firmly in place. Generally, two approaches can be taken to define green employment. Firstly, the top-down approach takes a sectoral lens and establishes the greenness of a job based on the importance of the sector's output in reaching climate targets and other environmental objectives. Secondly, the bottom-up approach denotes greenness in an occupation by measuring the extent of green skills, ( 1 ) tasks or knowledge, as well as the technology required in that occupation. Each of these approaches has distinct advantages and disadvantages. The top-down approach is better suited to sectoral analysis, as it denotes the greenness of jobs based on their output. However, it is limited to the initial definition of 'green' and can overlook indirect impacts of the transition. The task based-approach can be used for holistic analyses of the job impacts of greening. However, capturing the composition and relevance of tasks in jobs in the varied and dynamic labour market is a complex exercise that comes with caveats on data availability, transferability and durability. One example of the top-down approach is Eurostat's 2021 estimates on employment in the environmental goods and services sector (EGSS) based on national accounts. According to this metric, the European economy had 4.5 million green jobs in 2019 (3.2 million in 2000), around 2% of total employment. This should be considered a narrow proxy for green jobs, as it excludes other activities making a substantial contribution to climate and environmental objectives. A number of attempts have been made to analyse green employment based on the task-based approach. Most build on the Green Jobs Framework initially introduced by O*NET in the United States (US), ( 2 ) which categorises occupations based on the combination of the top-down and bottom-up approaches. This creates a four-fold division of all occupations: (i) New unique occupations introduced due to new nature of activities in the economy; (ii) Jobs that existed prior to the transition but see a considerable share of their tasks changed as a result of green activities; (iii) Those whose nature remains unaffected but whose demand increases due to accentuation of green activities in the economy; (iv) Jobs with no impacts due to the transition ('non-green' jobs). With some limitations, this classification is adaptable to the EU labour market. ( 3 ) Using this framework, one study estimates that up to 40% of employment in the EU contributed to green goals in 2016. ( 4 ) Further explorations suggest that around 17% of jobs in the OECD countries include a substantial share of green tasks. ( 5 ) Given the high variation between the estimates of different approaches, they should be interpreted with caution. ( 1 ) List of 'green skills' can be found in the European Classification of Occupations, Skills, and Competences (ESCO). These are defined as the skills, competences, abilities and knowledge needed to live in, develop and support a society that reduces the impact of human activity on the environment (Cedefop, 2012). ( 2 ) More information available on the website of O*NET Resource Center. ( 3 ) This approach applies a cross-reference between O*NET classification used in the US and ISCO classification used in the EU. One of its main weaknesses is the necessary aggregation, as O*NET is available at 8-digit level and ISCO at 4-digit level. Also, it assumes that EU Member States have broadly the same occupational structure as the US. ( 4 ) (Bowen and Hancke, 2019). ( 5 ) (OECD, 2023b).