Blue & Gold Illustrated: 2012 Notre Dame Football Preview
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BLUE & GOLD ILLUSTRATED 2015 FOOTBALL PREVIEW ✦ 39 strongest opponent on Notre Dame's 2015 schedule. Those two games shift the peak of the win distribution projection curve to 3-1. Kelly's teams have been strong in the middle part of the schedule throughout his tenure at Notre Dame, winning 80 percent of games played in the middle four-game set of the season. As with the first four-game set, the Irish have matched the most likely projected out- come in their middle four-game set in both 2013 (3-1) and 2014 (3-1). Notre Dame's set of October opponents this fall actually projects to be the easiest middle four-game set of the last four years, which might be a surprise considering the Tigers and Trojans are potentially the top two foes on the slate. Yet during the unbeaten 2012 regular sea- son, the Irish played three straight difficult games in October versus Stanford, BYU and at Oklahoma, and last year included the trio of Stanford, North Carolina and at Florida State. November Road Swing The curve peaks at 3-1 over the last four games of the regular season as well, with only one game in that segment played at Notre Dame Stadium and a challenging road trip over Thanksgiving weekend at Stanford. Kelly's record to close out the year has been a mixed bag recently. The 2012 season concluded with a 4-0 stretch, but 2013 (2-2) and 2014 (0-4) have been huge letdowns. Turnovers and depth issues have been big factors, and four of the six losses in those final four-game segments since 2013 have come by a touchdown or less. The win dis- tribution model indicates the November slate in 2015 is easier than the final four game segments in each of the last two seasons. The 2015 opponents do not constitute a historically strong schedule for Notre Dame, and it may set up to be the most manageable schedule of Kelly's career in South Bend. According to Table 1, Notre Dame has a 94 percent likelihood to post at least a 3-1 record over its first four games, a 73 percent likelihood to post at least a 3-1 record over its next four games and an 83 percent likeli- hood to fashion at least a 3-1 record over its final four games. 10-2 Most Likely Outcome Each of the last five seasons featured sev- eral four-game segments of similar opponent strength to the 2015 campaign. A team with the projected caliber of the 2015 Irish would have had at least a 70 percent likelihood to post at least a 3-1 record in 10 of the 15 season segments of the last five years. Notre Dame went 33-9 (79 percent) in those 10 segments. In the other five segments with a more difficult set of opponents, the Irish posted an 11-9 (55 percent) record. That 11-9 record against the most chal- lenging four-game sets of opponents in- cludes a 4-0 stretch in 2012 that was Notre Dame's most impressive of the Kelly era. October games in 2012 included a Sham- rock Series blowout win over Miami (7-5), an overtime thriller against Stanford (12-2), a three-point win over BYU (8-5) and the statement victory on the road versus Okla- homa (10-3). A team of Notre Dame's caliber that sea- son would have only a 12 percent likelihood of running the table against that set of op- ponents if the season were played again. The toughest four-game stretch on the 2015 season schedule gives the Irish a 28 percent likelihood of winning all four games. College football games aren't won or lost on a spreadsheet, of course. But the Irish have frequently matched projected expec- tations according to my efficiency model, especially over multiple game segments. If this season plays out similarly, a 10-2 record is the most likely outcome, and the model gives the Irish a 24 percent chance of going 11-1 or better. The talent/experience level is in place for a strong season, and the opponents don't pose an insurmountable threat. ✦ BRIAN FREMEAU Brian Fremeau of ESPN/Football Outsid- ers has been a statistical analyst at Blue & Gold Illustrated since January 2015. He can be reached at bcfremeau@gmail.com. After the USC game Oct. 17, Notre Dame plays only one of its last five games at home, versus Wake Forest Nov. 14. PHOTO BY BILL PANZICA