2016 Notre Dame Football Preview

2016 Notre Dame Football Preview

Blue & Gold Illustrated: 2012 Notre Dame Football Preview

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36 ✦ BLUE & GOLD ILLUSTRATED 2016 FOOTBALL PREVIEW W hen the first College Football Play‑ off selection committee rankings of the 2015 season were released, Notre Dame had just posted a victory over pre‑ viously undefeated Temple on the road to bring its overall record to 7‑1 on the season. Only four games remained in the regular season, and Irish fans were anxious about whether the committee would position Notre Dame in the mix for a CFP berth or whether they would be facing a potentially insur‑ mountable challenge to move up the rank‑ ings down the stretch. The answer came on the evening of Nov. 3. Notre Dame was ranked No. 5 by the committee — ahead of five undefeated teams from Power Five conferences and ranked behind only Alabama among teams with at least one loss on the season. It was a surprise to many, but the committee had clearly acknowledged the strength of Notre Dame's schedule to date and rewarded the team for it. That recognition lasted only a few more weeks. Notre Dame moved into the No. 4 position after disposing of Pittsburgh and held that spot until the release of CFP rank‑ ings Nov. 24. Undefeated Iowa and one‑loss Michigan State appeared ahead of Notre Dame that week, pushing the Irish down to No. 6. The path to the CFP officially ended with a late‑season loss to Stanford, but the message in the last few rankings releases was clear — even an 11‑1 record against one of the toughest schedules in the country may not have been enough to sway the committee in comparison with conference champion‑ ships won by other worthy contenders. The Irish have been chasing an elusive return to championship glory ever since claiming the national title with an unde‑ feated record in 1988, now 27 seasons in the rearview mirror. An undefeated record in 2012 carried the Irish into the BCS National Championship Game, and access for Notre Dame into the current four‑team playoff may ultimately require an unblemished run through the regular season as well. With that perspec‑ tive in mind, the following is a look at the 2016 schedule project in terms of its national championship potential. My FEI ratings (opponent‑adjusted drive efficiency) projections are based on program strength and trajectory as well as transition factors including returning contributors and recruiting success. The Irish have the ninth‑ best program trajectory rating, SBNation's Bill Connelly projects they bring back ap‑ proximately 54 percent of their 2015 produc‑ tion and they have had the 10th‑best average recruiting ranking over the last four years according to 247Sports. Notre Dame ranks 14th overall in the FEI projections combin‑ ing these factors. The 14th‑best team in the nation wouldn't typically be positioned as a likely CFP con‑ tender. Teams ranked in that top‑15 range win only 80 percent of their Football Bowl Subdivision games according to 10 years of Massey Consensus data and are particu‑ larly vulnerable against top‑five opponents (winning only 23 percent of those games), against other top‑15 opponents (50 percent) and against top‑30 opponents (76 percent). Against all other opponents, the 14th‑best team would be expected to win 94 percent of the time. This fall, Notre Dame will face only three top‑30 opponents according to my projections — Sept. 17 versus Michigan State, Oct. 15 against Stanford and Nov. 26 at USC. For context, the Irish played four top‑30 opponents in 2015 (including two in the top five), five in 2014, six in 2013, five in 2012, four in 2011 and four in 2010. This fall shapes up to be the weakest reg‑ ular‑season schedule of the Brian Kelly era. In addition to simply adding up top‑30 op‑ ponents, I measure schedule strength as the likelihood that an elite team would expect to go undefeated against a given schedule. An elite team would project to have a 35 percent likelihood of going undefeated against the 2016 slate — five times more likely than the same elite team would have running the table against Notre Dame's regular‑season schedule last year. Going undefeated through the regular season projects to be a significantly lesser challenge than it was in 2015, but Notre Dame will need to improve on its preseason projected rating to avoid a slip‑up in the first few months of the season. There is a 70 percent chance the Irish will lose to either Michigan State or Stanford at home accord‑ ing to the current ratings for those teams, and the win likelihood for ND hovers be‑ tween 70 percent and 85 percent in each of their other six games through October. If, on the other hand, the Irish play like a top‑five team instead of the 14th‑best team, the likelihood of an undefeated 8‑0 start leaps up from 9 percent overall to 56 percent due to the lack of other elite opponents on the schedule. That said, the schedule is manageable enough that Notre Dame can play at some‑ what less than an elite level and still work toward an elite record. This will be especially relevant in the hunt for the CFP. Of the 13 teams projected ahead of the Irish in terms of possession ef‑ ficiency, none will play fewer top‑30 oppo‑ nents than the Irish. That's a double‑edged sword, of course. Each of those teams will have more opportunities to trip up, but each will also have more opportunities to impress the committee. This may be Notre Dame's fate on an annual basis in the current postseason struc‑ ture. Through its first two seasons, the se‑ lection committee has made it clear that a conference championship game victory re‑ ceives some extra weight in the process, and independent Notre Dame will never have the opportunity to add more respect after the conclusion of the regular season. On the other hand, a schedule that pro‑ vides several key challenges but is still a manageable path to 12‑0 remains the one CFP destiny under Notre Dame's control. The Irish may be just good enough to test that hypothesis this fall. ✦ ND WILL TRY TO CAPITALIZE ON A WEAKER SCHEDULE IRISH ANALYTICS BRIAN FREMEAU Brian Fremeau of ESPN/Football Outsid- ers has been a statistical analyst at Blue & Gold Illustrated since January 2015. He can be reached at bcfremeau@gmail.com. This 2016 slate is shaping up to be the easiest regular-season schedule of the Brian Kelly era, with just three top-30 opponents (Michigan State, Stanford and USC). PHOTO BY BILL PANZICA

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