Blue & Gold Illustrated: 2012 Notre Dame Football Preview
Issue link: http://read.uberflip.com/i/531612
38 ✦ BLUE & GOLD ILLUSTRATED 2015 FOOTBALL PREVIEW E xpectations are high for Notre Dame this fall, a perspective shared both in- side and outside the fan base. The first projected win totals for college football teams were released in late May, and according to the Vegas oddsmakers, the Fighting Irish are counted among the most likely teams to reach double-digit regular- season victories in 2015. Notre Dame has achieved that level of success only once so far in the five-year Brian Kelly era, but an experienced roster combined with a manageable schedule looks promising. My focus is on projecting team efficiency measures to evaluate the Irish and their opponents, and I've reached a similar conclusion. This year's schedule breaks down into four-game segments evenly distributed in the months of September, October and No- vember. Based on the projected opponent- adjusted efficiency of the teams in each matchup, and factoring in home-field advan- tage, I calculated a win distribution matrix for each four-game segment. How likely is it that the Irish will go un- defeated over their first four games? How likely is it that Notre Dame will suffer a four-game slide down the stretch? The com- plete win distribution projection matrix is outlined in Table 1. September Surge Games against potentially tricky oppo- nents Texas and Georgia Tech highlight the September four-game segment, but both con- tests will be played at Notre Dame Stadium, and the win distribution projection curve peaks at 4-0. After struggling out of the gate in 2010 (1-3) and 2011 (2-2), the Irish have had un- defeated starts in two of the last three years under Kelly. In both 2012 (4-0) and 2014 (4-0), the projected win distribution curve also peaked at 4-0. In 2013, the curve peaked at 3-1, and the Irish matched that record through four games as well. The September set of games this fall projects to be the second-easiest set to start the season since 2010. Kelly and Co. are gunning for back-to- back unblemished Septembers at Notre Dame for the first time since, believe it or not, the four-year stretch in 1987-90, which included a school-record 23-game winning streak. Red-Alert October The October four-game segment includes a road trip to Clemson and a home game against USC, currently projected to be the WHAT ARE THE ODDS … NUMBERS FAVOR NOTRE DAME IRISH ANALYTICS Table 1: Notre Dame 2015 Win Likelihood In Four-Game Segments Season Segment 4-0 3-1 2-2 1-3 0-4 September games (Texas, UVa, GT, UMass) 56% 38% 6% 0% 0% October games (Clem., Navy, USC, Temp.) 28% 45% 23% 4% 0% November games (Pitt, Wake, BC, Stan.) 31% 52% 16% 1% 0% Notre Dame fell behind 35-0 in the first half at USC last year in the 49-14 loss, and the Trojans pose another formidable challenge in 2015. PHOTO BY BILL PANZICA