Potato Grower

WWW.POTATOGROWER.COM 53 WWW.POTATOGROWER.COM 53 Examining the past decade, russet volume increases about 17 percent over the second and third weeks of September. As September supplies rise, carton price reacts by dropping an average of 27 percent and 12 percent in consumer packages. As cartons are Idaho's and the Columbia Basin's sweet spot, this drop is of great consequence, easily exceeding $1,000 per acre in lost grower revenue most years. As the San Luis Valley and Wisconsin are more consumer- than carton-based, this drop due to September oversupply affects them negatively as well. This price- killing event happens even when the potential exists for a balanced or "short" crop. Crop efficiency weather measurements for corn and soybeans in 2017—an index that translates well to potatoes—depending on the growing region, indicate a 10- to 15-day reduction in growing-degree days from normal. This effect worsens as one goes north and lessens as one goes south. Just as the 2016 crop was ahead by 10 to 15 days, the 2017 crop could be behind by the same amount. Added together, the possibility of a 20- to 30-day growing- degree day shift between the 2016 and 2017 crops is a huge awakening! Add to this the fact that national potato acreage is down, and one feels a spark of market optimism. Grower takeaway: Don't crowd September shipments! To maximize your crop's potential, put September russets in storage. Be patient. Observe price, and ease your crop into the market. Extra off-the-field volume glutting the September market, while happily packaged and sold by your favorite shipper, will set a lower price than would otherwise be set—one that will not correct itself until much of the upcoming shipping season has passed, even if the crop is short. CHOOSING THE FUTURE 2017 fresh potato market potential As all in the fresh produce business know, the supply/demand equation is to produce economics what gravity is to Newton's Laws of Motion; both are scientifically based and both always deliver on their promise. Drop a brick from a building, and it accelerates toward earth at an absolute rate. It does this every time it is dropped with no deviation. Supply a fresh produce market at an unsteady rate, and price will immediately destabilize. Price will do this every time supply is unbalanced or unsteady. Just like strawberries and lettuce, fresh potatoes are fresh produce. And just like strawberries and lettuce, the fresh potato market wants the amount of fresh potatoes that it wants—demands—not more nor less. Overwhelm fresh potato demand and FOB price drops, but not necessarily retail price. Balance fresh potato supply with fresh potato demand, and price stabilizes. So what is the immediate and dependable indicator of the expertise with which fresh potato growers are supplying their market at any point in time? The answer: Price! September is harvest time for winter storage areas, and September is a shaky time for the fresh potato market, especially for the russet segment. Potato-producing regions that have been low on summer supplies come back into the market anxious to fully engage once harvest begins. Supplies soar. How does one measure how this scramble is going? Again, price tells the tale. United Potato Growers of America By Buzz Shahan Chief Operating Offi cer The fresh potato market wants the amount of fresh potatoes that it wants— demands—not more nor less. THE EASIEST AND BEST WAY TO UPGRADE YOUR POTATO STORAGE THIS YEAR MINIMIZING DISEASE MAXIMIZING HUMIDITY Silver Scurf and other molds natrually spread through the air and can cause severe damage in storage. Humigation removes airborne mold spores, stopping the spread of disease and keeping crops healthy. Boosting humidity maintains crop yield and value. Humigation maximizes humidity while using less water and keeping the plenum much drier. See the newly redesigned line of Humigators™ at humigation.com or call 800-656-2281. Financing Available. Silver Scurf and other molds 167594IHTHum13h.indd 1 6/26/17 9:06 AM

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