Issue link: https://read.uberflip.com/i/1301581
4 It was Sunday night, week one in the 2018 season, fourth quarter. The Green Bay Packers were down 3 to 20 against longtime rival the Chicago Bears. Aaron Rodgers, who sat out much of the first half from a knee injury, was back in the game, but things weren't looking good. Second and 2, and Corey Linsley snaps to Rodgers. Man-to-man coverage. All eyes are on Rodgers, who appears to have time, except nobody down the field looks open. Rodgers steps back and launches. Not all passes are created equal. When players defy the odds, we are exposed to how talented they truly are. But this often doesn't get represented by traditional box score stats, which would score Rodgers the same whether his pass traveled three yards behind the line of scrimmage to an open running back or whether his pass did what happened next. The ball sails 39 yards down the field toward the back-right corner of the Bears' end zone, and the Bears' Kyle Fuller is all over Geronimo Allison, the target of the last several of Rodgers' first-down throws. Everyone can see it's an unlikely catch as it arcs toward the pylon. But how unlikely? Next Gen Stats, powered by machine learning models built on Amazon SageMaker from AWS, had just launched another new metric for the 2018 season called Completion Probability, which leverages tracking data to improve upon the limitations of raw box score stats and add context to each passing play. Next Gen Stats calculated the pass had just a 14.7% Completion Probability—the most improbable completion that week. Allison leaps with Fuller on his back, in full reach, fingers wide to swat the ball, and misses by what seems like inches. The ball lands right in the pocket as Allison cradles it close and plants two feet with full control before sliding out of bounds for a touchdown. This is the beginning of the end for the Bears, who ultimately lose the game 23-24 to a significant fourth-quarter comeback for the Packers. FPO WHAT ARE THE ODDS? 4