5
WHAT HAPPENED?
Completion Probability is measured
using more than 10 different in-play
factors starting with data transmitted
by RFID chips in the football and on
players' shoulder pads all collected by
RF receivers around the stadium.
In the case of Rodgers, the data
shows the pass traveling 60.3 yards in
the air from the location of Rodgers
at the time of the throw to Allison
at the time of the catch. Rodgers
had 2.1 yards of separation from
Jonathan Bullard when he released
the ball, and Allison had 0.9 yards
of separation from Kyle Fuller at the
moment of the catch.
The data behind the stat
All of those factors, among several
others, had a direct relationship with
the likelihood Rodgers' pass would
be complete or incomplete. We
can evaluate these relationships by
plotting each in-play factor against
the actual completion percentage
to better understand each factor's
effect on the outcome of a play and
contextualize the difficulty of a throw.
Let's review some of these factors
and examine how the predictive
models were trained.
By Matt Swensson, Vice President of Emerging Products and Technology of the NFL
