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The implications of job losses are very different if young people who, in normal times, would have been employed seek more schooling instead. To gauge whether this occurred in practice, figure ES.4 plots the effects of the pandemic on the proportion of young people, by gender, who are Not in Education, Employment, or Training (NEETs) in six countries that collected data on both employment and school enrollment. The share of NEETs increased in most countries, even aer schools reopened. Although the results of the analysis suggest that the differences in pandemic effects across gender were modest, struc- tural impediments to women's participation in the labor market are far higher in many countries than they are for men's participation. Declines in employment not matched by increases in school enrollment are a grave concern for two reasons. First, time out of the labor force is time spent without acquiring on-the-job experience, and such experience is a key way to build human capital. Second, time spent out of work can lead to scarring in the labor market. In the United States, for example, individuals entering the labor market in a typical recession (associated with a 4–5 percentage point rise in unemployment rates) have initial earnings that are 10–15 percent lower than those of similar cohorts entering labor markets in "normal" times. These negative effects may not fade out for a decade. 22 Finally, evidence suggests that beyond the labor market, the pandemic worsened a variety of outcomes for young people in some seings, including higher rates of teenage pregnancy, worse mental health, and declines in the development of key social-emotional skills and executive functions. However, fewer data are available on these outcomes than for schooling and employment. Policies to reverse human capital losses The pandemic eroded human capital at critical ages. Whether this erosion leads to a permanent reduction in future stocks of human capital depends on both the size of the initial drop in the level of human capital as well as the rate at which human capital accumulates thereaer. This point is illustrated in figure ES.5, which shows three possible paths for an individual. Figure ES.4 Declines in employment of young people during the pandemic were not offset by increases in schooling or training Percentage point change in share of youth who were NEETS, by gender Brazil Ethiopia Mexico Pakistan South Africa Vietnam Youth male NEETs Youth female NEETs At least 2–6 months since schools reopened 3 4 6 2 –2 –5 1 2 6 7 4 2 9 3 5 8 1 –3 –4 –1 1 –1 5 4 3 2 8 4 6 8 –15 –10 –5 0 5 10 15 2020:Q2 2021:Q1 2021:Q4 2021 2020:Q2 2021:Q1 2021:Q4 2020:Q2 2021:Q1 2020:Q2 2021:Q1 2021:Q4 2020:Q2 2021:Q1 2021:Q4 Percentage point change Source: Original calculations for this publication, based on data from labor force surveys. Note: See chapter 4 for additional figure details. NEET = Not in Education, Employment, or Training; Q = quarter. 8 Collapse and Recovery: How the COVID-19 Pandemic Eroded Human Capital and What to Do about It

• Front Cover
• Contents
• Main Messages
• Executive Summary
• The pandemic destroyed human capital at critical moments in the life cycle
• Policies to reverse human capital losses
• Building agile, resilient, and adaptive human development systems for future shocks
• A human capital recovery: What will it take?
• Notes
• References
• Figures
• Figure ES.1 The pandemic led to steep losses in early childhood development and early learning in very young children in Bangladesh and Brazil
• Figure ES.2 During the pandemic, each month of school closures led to one month of learning losses, and more so in countries with lower GDP per capita
• Figure ES.3 Youth employment fell in most countries during the pandemic
• Figure ES.4 Declines in employment of young people during the pandemic were not offset by increases inschooling or training
• Figure ES.5 What are the paths to recovery?
• Table
• Table ES.1 There are evidence-proven policies that can reverse human capital losses