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Collapse and Recovery. How the COVID-19 Pandemic Eroded Human Capital and What to Do about It

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Table ES.1 There are evidence-proven policies that can reverse human capital losses Life cycle phase Challenge Policy recommendations Early childhood For infants and toddlers • Declines in immunizations and possible declines in nutritional status • Deficits in cognitive, language, social-emotional, and motor skills For children ages 3–5 • Deficits in cognitive, early literacy, early numeracy, social- emotional, and motor skills • Support targeted campaigns for vaccinations and nutritional supplementation. • Expand coverage of cash transfers for households with young children. • Increase coverage of parenting programs. • Expand coverage of pre-primary education. • Insert social-emotional skills into curricula and plan transitions to primary school. School-age children Learning losses—in both low- and middle-income countries School dropouts—primarily in lower-income countries • Keep schools open and increase instructional time. • Assess learning, match instruction to students' level, launch catch-up campaigns for students who have fallen furthest behind. • Focus on foundations and streamline the curriculum. • Create a political commitment for learning recovery. • Track students at risk of dropping out. • Alleviate financial constraints and provide incentives for students to aend school. Youth Employment losses among young people Declines in enrollment in upper-secondary school, university, TVET institutions More young people neither studying nor working Teenage pregnancy, impairments in mental health, and worse social- emotional skills in some contexts Policies will vary by country type: • In countries where neither youth nor adult employment has recovered, focus policies primarily on the demand side, encouraging firms to start hiring again. • In countries where adult employment has recovered and youth employment has not, emphasize supply-side policies such as adapted training, job intermediation, entrepreneurship programs, and new workforce-oriented initiatives for youth. • In countries where both adult and youth employment have recovered, there is no emergency. Policies also vary within country by age: • For younger youth (ages 15–18), support conditional cash transfers and information campaigns. • For older youth (ages 19–24), make post-secondary education relevant and engaging and partner with service providers and the private sector to offer short-term practical credentials. Human development systems Sector-specific pandemic responses unable to protect all dimensions of human capital across the life cycle Existing systems unable to deliver support and services at the scale required during the crisis • Invest in data collection and information systems to provide targeted support when required. • Leverage technology to deliver services (including developing cross-sectoral beneficiary registries, platforms, and payment systems). • Invest in coordination mechanisms (including joint commiees with representation from all ministries involved in different aspects of human capital). • Invest in flexible payment systems and contractual mechanisms that allow for the rapid reallocation of resources in response to evolving crises (including agile cross-sectoral public finance management systems and contractual relationships with the private sector to meet surges in demand). Source: Original table for this publication. Note: TVET = technical and vocational education and training. 10 Collapse and Recovery: How the COVID-19 Pandemic Eroded Human Capital and What to Do about It

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