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Figure ES.5 What are the paths to recovery? Human capital of an individual Pre-pandemic path Time No action Partial recovery Total recovery Lockdowns Onset of the pandemic Source: Original figure for this publication. Because human capital is built in a sequential, cumulative fashion, in the absence of remediation policies early deficits will increase over time. This is the worst-case scenario in figure ES.5 (red line), which shows an increasing divergence in human capital accumulation relative to the pre-pandemic path. It is also possible that, aer the initial drop, human capital grows along a trend exactly parallel to its pre- pandemic path (yellow line). Two points are important about this scenario. First, because the effect of shocks tends to compound over time, seing out on this recovery path implies substantial investments in human capital over and above those that would have been made in the absence of the pandemic. Second, this scenario only results in a partial recovery of human capital losses. Thus, in this scenario the stock of human capital would still be lower in the future. Finally, as figure ES.5 illustrates, the only path that does not entail permanent losses in human capital is the one in which human capital grows at a higher rate aer the initial shock (green line). Achieving this conver- gent path is a tall order. It would mean, for example, that children would have to learn more in every grade in school than they were learning before the pandemic. However, this is the only path by which individuals and countries can achieve the levels of human capital they would have had in the absence of the pandemic. Figure ES.5 clearly indicates the magnitude of the task ahead. It is possible to recover human capital losses, but it will require a substantial sustained effort—including, but not only, additional expenditures. With this framework in mind, this section points out what actions should receive priority at each stage in the life cycle. Some of the most important ones are summarized in table ES.1. Young children have missed critical investments in health and preschool, and their levels of cognition, vocabulary, and early learning in math and language have in many cases dropped dramatically. To prevent this poor start from amplifying into greater human capital losses as these children progress along the life cycle, policies should prioritize transfers for households whose income has not recovered, catch-up campaigns for vaccination and nutrition, parenting programs to encourage more cognitive and social-emotional stimula- tion in the home, restored and expanded coverage of pre-primary education, and mental health counseling programs for parents. School-age children suffered from unprecedented school closures. They learned lile if anything while schools were closed, and so their learning losses are massive. In addition, some children may be at risk of dropping out of school altogether, especially in lower-income countries. To reverse learning losses, Executive Summary 9

• Front Cover
• Contents
• Main Messages
• Executive Summary
• The pandemic destroyed human capital at critical moments in the life cycle
• Policies to reverse human capital losses
• Building agile, resilient, and adaptive human development systems for future shocks
• A human capital recovery: What will it take?
• Notes
• References
• Figures
• Figure ES.1 The pandemic led to steep losses in early childhood development and early learning in very young children in Bangladesh and Brazil
• Figure ES.2 During the pandemic, each month of school closures led to one month of learning losses, and more so in countries with lower GDP per capita
• Figure ES.3 Youth employment fell in most countries during the pandemic
• Figure ES.4 Declines in employment of young people during the pandemic were not offset by increases inschooling or training
• Figure ES.5 What are the paths to recovery?
• Table
• Table ES.1 There are evidence-proven policies that can reverse human capital losses